The life in the countries of the Eurasian Union is improving. Such a conclusion can be drawn from a macroeconomic review of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) for the third quarter of 2016.
In the third quarter, there is a trend towards the normalization of the economic situation in the countries of EDB.
Data for July and August indicate the presence of the prerequisites for the growth of GDP. The dynamics of the real economy is supported by improved performance in agriculture due to the high yield. The improvements are observed in the transport sector.
EDB expects a slowdown in economic recession in the countries-participants of the bank from 3.1 percent in 2015 to 0.6 percent in 2016. In 2017, the increase of 0.5 percent is possible.
The bank's analysts expect a significant decrease in inflation. Significant role in this play world food and commodity prices, stabilization of exchange rates in the second and third quarters.
An important factor in economic recovery for a number of EDB countries became export growth - primarily in the Russian Federation. At the same time, in Armenia this is connected with the depreciation of the national currency.
The growth of the Kyrgyz exports to Russia increased due to the integration.
As for the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union, there is recovery of remittances volume. Kyrgyzstan has the best indicators: the volume of remittances for the first half of the year grew by 22 percent.
There are imbalance risks in a number of sectors of the economy. First of all, it is a question of the public sector. Substantial and global risks are associated with the slowdown in the Chinese economy, lower commodity prices, the deteriorating situation in the banking sector of the European countries and the increase in the key rate of Federal Reserve System.
"The gradual easing of monetary policy will give additional impetus to the economic recovery of the region," EDB chief economist Yaroslav Lisovolik said.
"However, the main potential for accelerated recovery continues concentrating in the area of structural reforms, including the dividends that EDB countries can gain from economic integration," the expert said.