Currency market of Kyrgyzstan is still in fever. Dollar becomes more expensive again after a short lull. A similar situation was observed in the country a year ago. Should we expect the currency fluctuations?
I want to rise in price
Accession to EEU, the sharp devaluation of Kazakh tenge, the consequences of the global financial crisis made som extremely vulnerable in 2015. It entered 2016 with a record low price - 76 soms for $ 1. However, over the past six months, dollar fell to 67 soms.
"The dynamics of the dollar to som ratio from the beginning of 2016 was multidirectional. If at the beginning of the year its rate increased, then in March there was an inverse dynamics. As of today, the situation is relatively stable. Since the beginning of the year till August 22, dollar to KGS ratio decreased by 9.9 percent - from 75, 8969 to 68.4084 soms. At the end of 2015, recall, dollar rose by 28.9 percent - from 58, 8956 to 75, 8993 soms," the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic reported.
Dancing on the rake?
The American currency was in a fever all the summer long. But by the beginning of the fall, when demand for dollars traditionally falls, it suddenly jumped up to 69 soms. Kyrgyz citizens grew wary: shall we wait for the jump up to 75-80 soms like in November of 2015?
However, the economists rush to appease. There are no reasons for the dramatic growth of dollar. Economist Kubanychbek Idinov is sure that we should not expect the growth in the exchange rate in the coming months. American currency will stay at the level of 67-69 soms. In fact, there are objective reasons.
"Export of the products to Russia and Turkey has been arranged. We have the ability to export it to the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. Due to this, the country gets the currency, and dollar could fall. There is another important point. At the end of this quarter, Centerra should transfer our share of Kumtor project work. Thus, the dollar support for the economy will be slightly higher than it is now," Kubanychbek Idinov concluded.
In addition, the World Nomad Games will start in Issyk-Kul region this weekend. All tickets are sold out. Members of the delegations and tourists from different countries will arrive in the country. They will leave dollars here. Taking these factors into account, you should not expect a sharp growth of dollar rate. Rather, it will fall to 67 soms.
Industry, where are you?
Doctor of Economics Tolonbek Abdyrov is sure that Kyrgyzstan is conducting tight monetary policy. National Bank controls the process, so there are no sharp fluctuations in the exchange rate. However, such a position of som does not say that the economy is in good condition.
"If you look at the situation in the country, you can see that many enterprises are idle. Little production is exported. We have joined EEU last year which has quite complex technical regulations. It turns out that these rules do not provide an opportunity to widely unfold and to export products to the countries of the union. Today, businesses are trying to adapt to the new environment, meet the technical regulations, but it also takes time. And this is one of the reasons why dollar today is not in demand for the purchase of raw materials. Therefore, dollar stays at 68-69 soms," Tolonbek Abdyrov said.
In the past, when re-export economic model was flourishing in the country, dollars were needed to purchase goods abroad. The lack of currency forced the National Bank to intervene, replenishing the lack of it. The situation has changed after joining EEU. The country should aim at the development of industrial production. But this has not happened so far.
"Over the past two years, the National Bank "threw" $ 400-500 million on the foreign exchange market to stabilize som. I believe that it was necessary to think through the policy and direct the money to build modern enterprises, which comply with international standards. In this case, we could export the products that we produce. Then we would replenish the lack of dollars," Tolonbek Abdyrov commented.
Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve may have a significant impact on the position of som-dollar. International investors have more and more confident expectations about lifting the key rate in the United States - last week it was said by the FRS chief Janet Yellen. If this really happens, then the Kyrgyz Republic will have another round of growth in dollar exchange rate.