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Kyrgyzstan: what will happen to dollar in 2017. Expert opinions

28/12/16 09:22, Bishkek – 24.kg news agency, by Tatyana KUDRYAVTSEVA

Experts believe that dollar won't play dirty trick in the year of the Rooster. There also will be no repeat of the situation when Kyrgyzstan started 2016 with the dollar rate of 76 soms. This forced to take emergency measures, which made the dollar to stay at the level of not higher than 70 soms the whole year.

Dollar to be kept for President

Doctor of Economics Tolonbek Abdyrov is sure that under natural conditions the KGS could hardly be a serious competitor to the dollar. Kyrgyzstan doesn't have much backlog to develop the economy in 2017. This means that there are no funds for the production, but the country has tough monetary policy.

"The authorities follow tough policy to keep inflation under control, don't give the possibility for prices to increase. At the same time, we import most of the goods, therefore, constantly need dollars. And if suddenly there are fluctuations on the foreign exchange market in the next year, the National Bank will sell dollars to stabilize the exchange rate," Tolonbek Abdyrov said to 24.kg news agency.

Economist is confident that the country will continue to follow the chosen course. Therefore, one shouldn't wait for a major change of the dollar rate. Also don't forget that  presidential elections will be held next year.

"Fluctuations of the dollar are not advantageous for the authorities, so the process will be kept under strict control," Tolonbek Abdyrov noted.

Expert believes that the government not only keeps the dollar in check, but also doesn't allow throwing large amounts of national currency on the market. Because of this businessmen lack money, and therefore one can't rely on the development of production in 2017.

Virtual optimism

Economist Aiylchy Sarybaev agrees with colleague. He recalls that the gradual growth of the dollar exchange rate over the past five years shows the controllability of KGS. Expert thinks that it is not a big deal. He is confident that the National Bank of the republic successfully copes with the task of regulating the rate of KGS, using international reserves of the country.

"Thanks to this the National Bank to some extent smoothes out the impact of the global monetary, economic and financial crisis on the inflation processes in Kyrgyzstan. For example, in the past two years, the sharp exchange rate of tenge, Russian ruble and yuan didn't influence the exchange rate of som much. Although, we have a virtual economy, real sector doesn't affect the rate of som," Aiylchy Sarybaev says.

He noted that businesses can work more or less stable.  Such a policy allows not to worry about the possibility of a sharp jump in prices.

"In 2017, sharp changes in the dollar exchange rate are not expected. There can be jumps of 1-2 soms," Aiylchy Sarybaev said.

At the same time, the economist predicts that the dollar still will be growing. But it will happen gradually. This is a worldwide trend. This is effect of the crisis in Russia and Kazakhstan, which are the main trade partners of Kyrgyzstan.

The main thing - no panic

The Chairman of the National Bank Tolkunbek Abdygulov sees no reason for panic and anxiety. The situation on the foreign exchange market is stable. From the beginning of the year, the som appreciated against the dollar by 8.5 percent. 

If we talk about the possible currency fluctuations in the future, the Chairman of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic advises to focus on the state of the economies of Russia and Kazakhstan. The situation there has an indirect impact on the situation in Kyrgyzstan through remittances and investments.

"According to forecasts, economical growth in Russia and Kazakhstan is expected. I think that everything will be fine," Tolkunbek Abdygulov said.

In addition, the head of the National Bank recommends citizens not to panic. It is dangerous because people hurry to buy the currency, and then suffer from it.

"I always advise everyone that it is better to wait when something is not clear, and then everything will be good," Tolkunbek Abdygulov says.


URL: http://eng.24.kg/finansy/183546-news24.html
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RELATED MATERIALS

Exchange rate from 4 February
National Bank of Kyrgyz Republic
USD 69.4463
EUR 74.6131
RUB 1.1708
KZT 0.2156
UZS 0.0212
Weighted average exchange rate of som on February 3
USD 69.4300


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05.02.2017
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«When we ran in the elections, we said that would even get the moon and the sun from the sky ».
MP Kamchybek Joldoshbayev at a meeting of Parliament, February 2, 2017.

«What have you done besides sale of donkeys to China?».
Deputy Ryskeldi Mombekov to the head of State Inspectorate for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Safety Kalysbek Zhumakanov at a meeting of Parliament, February 1, 2017.
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