Kyrgyzstan has decided to keep up with Turkey and to increase the electoral threshold up to 10 percent. Experts fear that in this case the elections of 2015 can be declared invalid.
Paper can't blush?
24.kg news agency has already wrote about view of Ata Meken faction leader Omurbek Tekebayev and his colleagues - Republican Abdyzhapar Bekmatov and social democrat Daniyar Terbishaliev on the electoral legislation.
Lawyers of "Adilet" legal clinic and experts, in particular the Speaker of the 4th convocation of the parliament, professor Zainidin Kurmanov, unflattering appreciated the initiative of lawmakers and advised to return their creations as requiring improvement and don't take it in the form in which they are brought up for discussion.
The authors, surprisingly, obeyed and withdrew their development. But the deputies continued their attempts to reshape the legislation, governing the electoral process. Now the leaders of SDPK and Ar-Namys - Chynybai Tursunbekov and Felix Kulov have also inspired. Here is the ebullience of speech and lack of thought! Analysts were puzzled with the idea of deputies to increase the electoral threshold up to 10 percent. At the same time, according to the deputies, 4 parties will pass to the parliament. It is offered to count votes not by the number of voters, but those who voted.
In his turn, the leader of SDPK parliamentary faction Chynybai Tursunbekov added that changes won't affect the Constitution on no account. It is only about redrawing the electoral law.
Felix Kulov claims that the increase in the barrier will help to prevent post-election conflict. "Because only those political organizations, that receive 9.7-9.9 percent, will have seats in the Parliament, i.e. lag behind of the favorite of the race, but with a minimum break-off. In fact, it's not difficult to gain 10 percent of the number of voters. This is only 170,000 votes - taking into account that about 1.7-2 million people will take part in the elections," he said.
It is unclear why the leader of the party, which barely overcame the five-percent barrier in 2010 and failed campaign in 2012 during elections to the local councils, is so optimistic.
Don't talk nonsense
The head of "Adilet" legal clinic Cholpon Dzhakupova, answering questions of 24.kg news agency, explained that to gain 10 percent at low turnout, which is typical for the elections in the "island of democracy", especially in Bishkek and Osh, is very problematic. "Even if taking into account that the formula of vote counting will change. Just think: 10 percent of those who voted. And where is the guarantee that 3 million people - active voters, will come to the elections-2015? Especially because of this epic collection of biometric data, the number of participants may be reduced. Those who haven't passed biometrics won't be allowed to vote. So, I don't know how the parties are going to overcome this threshold. Regional barriers at 0.7 percent also should be taken into account. I don't understand what guided the authors of the amendments, when they argued that 4 parties will pass to the parliament, considering 10 percent threshold fall. And then, how are they going to introduce into the Parliament such political organizations which will have 9.8 percent of votes, for example, from the number of those who came to the elections? Cholpon Dzhakupova wondered.
She added: "Foreign experts strongly oppose increasing threshold, explaining that artificial barriers to participants in the electoral process appear. And the candidates are placed deliberately in unequal battle for votes." In addition, flywheel of administrative resource is launched with a high threshold.
However, the head of Ar-Namys urges not to listen to analysts, calling their arguments nonsense. "I repeat that we are not going to count from a total number of voters, but only from the number of those who came to polls. Whether the parties, deemed to be Republican, really won't gain in the country 170 thousand votes throughout the country? This is nonsense. We, on the contrary, enable smaller organizations to consolidate and create a sustainable system of party formation. Really great parties will get into the parliament, which will help the country to get rid of permanent shocks. Coalitions will be more stable and the government won't have to change its convocation every year," Felix Kulov assured.
On the eve of grand warning
Those deputies, who invented raising the threshold, base on experience of Turkey, apparently forgetting that vote there - it's not right, as in Kyrgyzstan, but obligation. If a person doesn't come to a poll, he will face substantial fine. "When I knew about this initiative, which was sounded by Kulov and Tursunbekov, I had an impression that the authors distributed in advance who will receive mandates and how many. That is, we will again receive puppet and docile parliament," the expert Zainidin Kurmanov noted.
Immediately the initiators rebelled - saying, not obedient, but working stably, not puppet - but robust. However, six of one, half a dozen of the other.
One point remains unclear: how do the authors plan to circumvent the Constitution in case of approval? It states that only those parties, which get a certain number of votes, may qualify for a seat in parliament. "Otherwise, the vote is declared invalid. The Basic Law says, and I don't understand how Kulov is going to resolve this conflict, I do not understand," Cholpon Dzhakupova is perplexed.
She sends creative deputies in October 2010, when five parties, represented in the parliament today, didn't collect even 40 percent of the voters. "Then there was another calculation. That's it. But I say that it is difficult to gather even 10 or 9.5 percent for 4-5 parties within low voting turnout. And nobody can oblige our citizens go to polls," the lawyer added.
Woe from NOwit
Analysts fear not even imagination of domestic legislators, but the fact that, despite all the comments, the proposed amendments will still be approved by parliamentary majority. Of course, the election code needs to be improved, especially number of parties has increased since the recent elections in the parliament, and now there are 192 political organizations on "island of democracy". But most of them exist only on paper and really aren't involved in the political process. It is also worrying that little time left before the race for mandates, and deputies again stir up troubles and redraw the laws, by which parliamentary elections to take place in autumn. It turns out the call "All to start!" has already sounded, but the runners aren't instructed.
Cholpon Dzhakupova believes that in such circumstances it will be very difficult even to organize propaganda work. "The elections - always a risk and conflicts in society only increase. And changing rules of the game at the last minute is very dangerous," the head of Adilet legal clinic stressed.