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Coalition disintegration: the truth is out there?

20/03/14 15:27, Bishkek – 24.kg news agency, by Anastasia BENGARD, Tatyana KUDRYAVTSEVA

The deputies of the Parliament disorganized another coalition of parliament majority. For them it was obvious, but not for others. Ata Meken faction declared about quitting the alliance formed in September 2012. The Leader of the faction Omurbek Tekebaev said that Zhantoro Satybaldiev has exhausted moral and political resources for execution of functions entrusted him and holding an office of the prime minister.

Journalists of 24.kg news agency asked respondents about real reasons of "unexpected" coalition disintegration.

Zhyldyzkan Zholdosheva, the deputy of the parliament from Ata-Zhurt faction:

- I had no doubts that Tekebayev will strike out at the coalition and the president of the republic. First of all, it's his character. When he feels pressure and need to take responsibility for serious issues, he acts like this. It is the easiest way. When his faction entered the coalition, I said that the enemy is not far, it is near. And my words have borne out. He came into power and didn't understand that the power is, first of all, liability to the state, to people. At the present time such issues as Kumtor, entry in the Customs Union are still not considered... And in such moment Tekebayev stabbed in the back.

I had such a feeling that someone gave them such task - to quit the coalition, especially in such moment when all deputies were in districts till March 24. Why he didn't say it 10 days ago? Such step I interpret as betrayal. He proved once again that he is afraid of responsibility.

Marat Kazakpaev, political scientist:

- It was Tekebaev's initiative. Probably, it is per-election project. Ata Meken joining the opposition wants to gain support of electorate, of all who are not satisfied with the authority and the life. The faction feels that probably at the next parliament elections in a year they can fail. That's why they decided to bet the ranch, terminating the agreement.

Igor Shestakov, media expert:

- I see two main reasons, and in them Omurbek Chirkeshovich wasn't stereotyped. These are, apparently, personnel matters in which he didn't come to agreement with Zhantoro Satybaldiev. The same situation he had with Omurbek Babanov. I guess Satybaldiev refused executing orders of the faction in some key positions. Second, during the discussion of Kumtor issue, the head of the cabinet frankly showed that he doesn't care about the opinion of Ata Meken representatives. It is no coincidence that Erkinbek Alymbekov refused his mandate that time.

These two reasons are on the surface, but it took its toll. If to raise the questions on the activity of the state authorities (on reconstruction of Osh and Jalal-Abad cities), then you should ask Tekebaev. Why they didn't raise this question when they appointed Zhantoro Satybaldiev for the post of prime minister (actually, he became the prime minister due to them)? Why did they remember about it only in a year? So, I think that Ata Meken is preparing for coming elections, showing that they are trying to bring "honest" officials to high posts. But many people understand that it is just a political game.

Tabyldy Akerov, political scientist: 

- It was noticeable from the very beginning that one of the factions (SDPK) didn't have its positions in the coalition, the faction look back at the 7th floor, i.e. president and his office. All the issues are solved there and then they just stand their ground. For instance, sensational Kumtor issue. The government also looked back at the president and didn't collaborate with the coalition and the parliament. Zhantoro Satybaldiev was asked for prime minister post for realization of president's strategy. He doesn't have his own point of view, position, ideas and that's why no reforms are held. It hindered the alliance to move forward.

The main issue on Osh and Jalal-Abad was raised many times, but it was postponed and not considered. Of course, such situation shouldn't happen. Moreover, it was said long ago that the government will resign. But it hasn't happened. That's why Ata Meken decided put the lid on the matter and quit the coalition in order to form more qualified cabinet which could have more opportunities, ideas and solve public and state issues more effectively.

Arkady Dubnov, Russian expert:

- Being outside observer I always keep watching at events in Kyrgyzstan. Most likely the coalition disintegrated because of personal conflict between Ata Meken leader Omurbek Tekebaev and the Prime Minister Zhantoro Satybaldiev. I can say that there are no external backgrounds for government resign. The initiative of Tekebaev to quit the coalition is aimed at settling accounts not only with political competitors, but also with personal one. I don't see any grounds for government resign.

Technical cabinet of ministers of Zhantoro Satybaldiev, absolutely deprived of political ambitions, don't give any grounds to consider it harmful for the country. Probably that's why the leader of another faction - Felix Kulov is right saying that the government won't change considerably. Only figure of the cabinet will change. Also there won't be considerable changes in the majority coalition. Probably SDPK will suggest Respublika to enter the coalition. If to say about Ata-Zhurt faction, I doubt that they will be suggested to join. What kind of Kyrgyz opposition we can talk, if this party will unite with SDPK? Another question is: who will hold the post of prime minister?

Akylbek Apaitov, independent expert:

- With coalition disintegration at the suggestion of Ata Meken everything is simple. Omurbek Tekebaev thinks that he is grand master and has played another chess game. In anticipation of another anniversary of April events in 2010, Tekebaev tries to see himself as a spokesman. There are rumors that the next prime minister will be spokesman Asylbek Zheenbekov. People are prepared for coming events in order they won't be surprised. Zheenbekov - prime minister, Tekebaev - spokesman. So, the balance between the president Almazbek Atambaev and those who "cleans the glade" Omurbek Tekebaev will be preserved.

There is also one more thing. Sooner, will start talks that the country's budget receives less sums of money after withdrawal of Manas Transit Center. The only way to replenish budget is raising utility tariff. While Russia is busy with Crimea, it won't pay attention to Kyrgyz inquiries and won't force issues of entering of Kyrgyzstan in Customs Union. It will just watch the development of affairs at the political arena.

Kyrgyzstan will have to solve all its problems with lack of funding at the expense of raising utility tariff. But for this the person who will take responsibility for unfavorable decision is needed. And Asylbek Zheenbekov can become this person. Political players know it and that's why they try to put through different combination in order not to go flop before parliamentary election in 2015. That's why Tekebaev at the post of spokesman can block some unfavorable decisions. He will become public defender and will be able to attract funding of tycoons.

But there is another possible scenario. Tekebaev can join opposition because he understands that the parliament will have to take unfavorable decisions. SDPK can also join opposition. Then they will criticize any prime minister to come after Satybaldiev. Returning Omurbek Babanov at this post will be the most favorable variant for Omurbek Tekebaev.

The parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan will be in 2015. The political game starts and there will be a lot of interesting in future.

Bakyt Baketayev, political scientist:

- The reason of coalition disintegration is obvious: Ata Meken leader and the prime minister have disagreements. They crossed point of no return. That's why Omurbek Tekebaev took such steps. The same way they "disposed" two previous prime ministers. This is the signal for future prime minister to examine Ata Meken's program more attentively. Probably, new head of the cabinet will follow the program very carefully. Although he won't hold an office more than a year, he will be replaced after parliamentary elections in 2015.

SDPK, Ar-Namys and Respublika can join the new coalition. For Ata Meken, I think, it is better to stay in opposition. They are good oppositionists. I think that Yrys Aldy Yntymak coalition doesn't correspond to their title. Ata Meken was in opposition in the coalition's membership. Make it happen. There's little harm in doing so.

Narynbek Moldobaev, "Za reformy" ("For reforms") deputy group:

- I don't think that there are some hidden causes for coalition disintegration. The leader of Ata Meken clearly explained why his faction quitted the coalition. The Prime Minister Zhantoro Satybaldiev must resign. I agree with Tekebayev that the prime minister should be responsible not only for economic development of the country. It is a political figure either.

We can't call the decision unexpected. Ata Meken prepared for it long ago. At first, they thought that the question about government resign will be considered after the agreement on Kumtor restructuring. Then they hoped that this question will be considered after examining the results of the State Directorate's activity on Osh and Jalal-Abad reconstruction. But the government used its recourses and many deputies refused vote for resign. The members of the faction visited the south of the country and observed the work of the directorate. They convinced of many violations being committed. So they had no choice then to obtain resignation of the government by any possible means. It was the secession from the coalition.

There are complaints only to the head of the government. He didn't have moral right to hold this post. There are no complaints to the cabinet. So, probably, the new coalition will be in the same membership. Except Ar-Namys and SDPK, for instance, Respublika also can join the coalition. They will agree to preserve current membership of the government by replacing only the prime minister.

URL: http://eng.24.kg/perekrestok/169554-news24.html
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«When we ran in the elections, we said that would even get the moon and the sun from the sky ».
MP Kamchybek Joldoshbayev at a meeting of Parliament, February 2, 2017.

«What have you done besides sale of donkeys to China?».
Deputy Ryskeldi Mombekov to the head of State Inspectorate for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Safety Kalysbek Zhumakanov at a meeting of Parliament, February 1, 2017.

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