Less than two weeks left before the parliamentary elections, but it is already clear that only 4-5 out of 14 parties will take seats in Parliament. The question on the agenda is: how many organizations will take seats in the highest legislative body and what of them exactly. Experts are cautious in making forecasts and reluctantly name three favorites. 24.kg news agency presents a range of views of analysts on the topic: Who will enter the Parliament?
Arkady Dubnov, an expert for Central Asia (Russia):
- I do not want to poke a finger into the sky, but if to rely on the arithmetical average of all sorts of ratings, there emerges the following picture: SDPK, Kyrgyzstan, perhaps, Onuguu Progress and Bir Bol will overcome 7 percent threshold. If they fail to fully sink Ata Meken and Ata Jurt Republic, the first two or three from their lists will get mandates.
Bekmurza Tokoev, Doctor of Political Sciences and International Relations at Bosfor University (USA):
- There are three scenarios for the development of the situation. The first is the real, but undesirable. According to it five parties: the Social Democratic Party, Ata Meken, Bir Bol, Ata Jurt Republic and Kyrgyzstan will get into Parliament. Therewith, the last one would be an outsider. Then the coalition will have the following format: three-party, led by Ata Meken (but in reality, the choice of the President will fall on SDPK) plus Bir Bol.
The second variant can be called ideal and the best for Kyrgyzstan. This is Parliament consisting of three parties. In this variant there will be a strong two-party coalition for radical reforms, and it will be formed from the Social Democrats and Ata Meken. The third player will be either Bir Bol or Ata Jurt Republic.
The worst variant for Kyrgyzstan is the third. This is when the Parliament will become a place of political trading, intrigues and chaos. Such a hybrid will appear in the case of six or seven parties entering into the Parliament. That is, SDPK, Ata Meken, Bir Bol, Ata Jurt Republic, Onuguu - Progress, Butun Kyrgyzstan Emgek, Kyrgyzstan. In the third scenario, the Parliament will become a place of chronic power struggle.
Murat Suyunbaev, a political scientist:
- I think the Parliament will be formed of four parties. SDPK, Ata Meken, Ata Jurt Republic - this trio will get into it for sure. And what about the fourth ... Equal chances have Butun Kyrgyzstan Emgek, Bir Bol and Onuguu-Progress. There will be no scatter in 6-7 parties. Otherwise, there would not be the whole story with integration and joining of parties. But the intrigue, in my opinion, lies not in it but in behavior of those parties who, allegedly, gathered the support of the President and not get into Parliament. They somehow thought that the words: " I endorse your program" is a ticket to the Parliament. That is there was a substitution of concepts. One more alarming point: all parties, running for seats in the Parliament, have people who pre-paid for the place. But there is no guarantee that they will receive mandates.
There are, according to various estimates, about 500-600 of such people. They are wealthy citizens, and they can provoke protests after the elections.
Zainidin Kurmanov, Professor, Doctor of Historical Sciences:
-Considering the fact that Kyrgyzstan has not yet modeled the party system, not changed the architecture of the electoral process, the Parliament will be formed of six or seven parties, that is, they will be able to overcome 7 percent barrier and the regional quota of 0.7 percent. And that's fine. Even in Western Europe, charismatic leaders do not gain more than 50 percent. Maximum is 35. Alexis Tsipras is a proof of this fact. In Kyrgyzstan, the parliament can not be formed of two or three parties as the party system is not rebuilt. In our country, the party bosses and their propagandists will continue to give out ridiculous promises that have nothing to do with reality. For example, one of the political organizations promises maternity capital to families for the third child. Is our economy comparable to the Russian one? No. The program of the other party says that by 2020 we will enter the top 50 of the most successful countries with developed economies. I wonder how these party functionaries are going to make such a leap for 5 years, if now Kyrgyzstan is on the 144th place? Onuguu-Progress party looks attractive against this background. It even works with real projects like "Light city." All the rest are trying to get into through publicity stunt, deceive voters, manipulate public opinion. We can only hear about the achievements, and not about their own, but the government, which some political organizations do not hesitate to arrogate to themselves.
Igor Shestakov, an expert:
- There will be four or five parties. SDPK - definitely. It has stable electorate, plus the President stands for it. That is why the people, who vote for the Social Democrats, extend credit of trust to the head of state and stand up for stability. It will be also Republic Ata Jurt because it is actively working with the electorate, and Omurbek Babanov has managed to unite under its banners pro-Western liberals and pro-Russian activists. The youth also supports it. It is also a plus. Onuguu-Progress also has good chances to get into Parliament. They work with specific projects. It is first. And, secondly, they are focused on the rural population. That is, the party began to rise because of a regional force, and it is a good political capital. It happened so that voters in villages are more active than in the city.
Bir Bol has strong top ten. All of them have their electorate, they are recognizable and charismatic persons. As for Kyrgyzstan party, it is difficult to say definitely. This party is a surprise. Now it is trying to replace Ar-Namys but the last in this election is likely to repeat the fate of Ak-Shumkar, which in 2010 was trying to get into through a revolutionary promise, saying that it was a participant of April 7 events. But the voters did not pick up the promise, and the party lost. There is also Ata Meken. Now the socialists are working hard, trying to lure voters. It is understandable. In 2010, Tekebayev nearly slipped past the precious Parliament.
Grigory Mikhailov, an expert:
- The most probable scenario is when the Parliament will have 3-4 parties. The greatest chances of getting the most has the president's party of the Social Democrats. It has such advantages as fame, administrative resources, financial resources, as well as the status of a favorite. Situation with others is difficult. It is difficult to build reliable predictions without reliable data of sociological researches. Now there are none, the published ones are profanity and propaganda.
On the basis of media activity of financial and organizational resources, we can say that the battle for the remaining after the Social Democratic Party mandates will be between Ata Jurt Republic, Ata Meken, Bir Bol and Kyrgyzstan. Onuguu-Progress can be also included into the second group. One gets the impression that Ar-Namys and Butun Kyrgyzstan Emgek appeared in the role of catching-up. The others have obvious serious problems - some staffs are experiencing acute shortage of funds, the others can not deal with human resources and strategy.
It should be noted that the status of a favorite can play bad joke with the Social Democrats. This will happen if one of the competing parties is able to hold the protests - there are always those who vote against the government. Their percentage is small - 5-10 percent, but if someone from competitors is able to mobilize the protest electorate and SDPK relaxes in anticipation of seemingly assured victory, the first place could go to other party. So far, Ata Meken is playing the role of "offended and insulted." The result is not good - it is hindered as by ineffectiveness of current operations and the weakness of the current agenda so by the stuck "Party of the marauders" label.
Zulfiya Marat, an expert:
- No matter what party comes to the Parliament, these results are originally illegitimate. The voter is obliged to vote not for a particular candidate out of 14 parties, but for the party. It is a violation of international electoral standards and the Constitution, the electoral legislation. I am convinced that most of the future deputies of the Parliament would never have received a mandate, if they were not "dragged" through party lists. And so, the leader of a political party, not the voters, decides who will be a deputy. A decision - what party will be in Parliament - is again not made by the voter, but it is a result of the collusion of political groups serving the interests of local and foreign oligarchs. Biometrics is a great help here. All indicates that the results are predetermined; there are bids only for the number of mandates. These elections will, unfortunately, be another step to destabilize our country.
Pavel Dyatlenko, Ph.D., associate professor:
- Taking into account the changes in the electoral law (this is the republican threshold of 7 percent instead of five per cent in 2010 elections) and high segmentation of voters, from three to six parties can get into the new Parliament.
Among the possible leaders are SDPK, Ata Jurt Republic and Ata Meken. They have the resources and political experience, presented at different levels of government, their lists have many famous people. These parties are focused on different groups of voters, they are hardly and actively working in the information field. It is unlikely that these three parties will be able to collect all the votes, so there is a high probability for one or more new parties to enter the Parliament.
Good chances have Bir Bol, Onuguu - Progress, Kyrgyzstan, Butun Kyrgyzstan Emgek and Zamandash. They have the resources and are active in the election campaign, their lists consist of famous and influential people. These parties can gather voices of those voters who are dissatisfied with the current convocation of the Parliament, and those, who in the last election voted for parties that did not enter the Parliament.