by Tatyana KUDRYAVTSEVA
Elections in Kyrgyzstan finished. Six parties got seats in the Parliament. The main intrigue of these days is forming of a coalition of the parliamentary majority.
What is the future of the country after the elections? What parties will form the coalition? How it will affect the composition of the government? These questions were answered by respondents of 24.kg news agency.
Yulia Yakusheva, executive director of North - South Political Science Center:
- I assess the results of the elections as positive. They allow systematically modernize the whole Kyrgyz society, the economy, to hold necessary reforms. The main question now is formation of the coalition of the parliamentary majority. The Social Democratic Party will become its core. As for parties which will enter coalition, there may be different options. Most likely, it is Kyrgyzstan and Bir Bol. Perhaps, Republic - Ata Jurt and Onuguu-Progress. As for Ata Meken, it was originally designed for the opposition. However, there may be different configurations.
Now we can say that a majority coalition, which is formed by the Social Democratic Party, will be stable. The coalition will allow carrying out political and economic reforms and ensuring political stability.
- Will the acting current Prime Minister Temir Sariev retain his post?
I think he will take this post at least for a year, maybe a little more. Composition of the government will not seriously change. But taking into account formation of the coalition, there are expectations that Omurbek Babanov can hope for the post of the Prime Minister. But I think that there will be no major changes in the nearest future. At least, there are no preconditions. Moreover, the government has proven its effectiveness, and there is no reason to change horses in midstream.
Bekbosun Borubashev, a political scientist:
- The situation will not cardinally change after the parliamentary elections. After all, all the same people came to the Parliament. As for coalition of the majority, it's hard to predict anything. One can only note that it will be sustainable if it is created by top 3 parties - the Social Democratic Party, Republic - Ata Jurt and Kyrgyzstan. But whether they can come to an agreement?
- Will the composition of government change?
- Of course, its structure and composition will change. Remember, recently Temir Sariev said that after the elections he would present the new structure of the government. So, he will. Therefore, new people will come into the Cabinet. Each party has a list of those whom they want to see on this or that position. If the Social Democrats fail to agree with the top 3 parties, it is always possible to find a compromise with the other three.
Kanatbek Murzakhalilov, expert:
- The elections were held as expected, nothing extraordinary has happened, except for the sixth place of Ata Meken and the failure of Butun Kyrgyzstan - Emgek. Once again the election marathon showed that voters can be mobilized with the help of financial resources. Now the electorate, maturing within a month with "real / unrealistic" promises of parties, has time to assess their real actions. Fingerprinting partly excluded the participation of the human factor in the voting process. I think the parliamentary elections were a dress rehearsal before the upcoming presidential ones. Those party leaders, who have the ambition to lead the country, now look at their chances in another way. Of course, there will be unhappy, but they will not be able to organize mass protest actions, pickets as they have already spent their finances.
Most likely, the hard core of the majority coalition is the Social Democrats, Kyrgyzstan, Onuguu Progress while Republic - Ata Jurt and Bir Bol will be considered as a reserve parties. Ata Meken in the current situation will remain in the opposition. Having 11 mandates, it will be very difficult for the party to block the decision of the authorities. Probably, the composition and structure of the Cabinet of Ministers will be changed significantly. Most likely, the government will be headed by the current speaker of parliament. If the current Prime Minister justified the possible expectations in the role of "successor", he can stay at his post. I hope to see in Parliament younger and creative thinking individuals.
Chinara Esengul, a political scientist:
- It is clear that Ata Meken is in opposition. The second candidate to be there is Republic - Ata Jurt. It all depends on elected Prime Minister. Majority coalition will be formed on the basis of this position. Kyrgyzstan and the Social Democrats will go along. The question is whom Onuguu Progress and Bir Bol will join. Onuguu is likely to be with SDPK, but Bir Bol will bargain for the places in the Cabinet or at the level of deputies. We understand that parties hoped for some results, but the question was not only in mandates but also in certain positions.
I believe that Omurbek Babanov would like to show himself two years before the presidential election. He wants to become prime minister. On the other hand, there is a man of the same caliber, who has worked and tried very hard in the past six months. It is Temir Sariev. But he is not from the Social Democratic Party. But the Social Democratic Party, in my opinion, has no other candidates. Therefore, it will have, like it or not, to advocate for consistency and continuity. They will keep Temir Sariev on his post to let him complete the begun affairs. If the Social Democrats can not agree with Republic-Ata-Jurt on his candidacy, then Republic - Ata Jurt will go into opposition.
But the main struggle will be closer to the presidential elections of 2017. Therefore, the person who will be Prime Minister in the next two years will try to become president.
Murat Suyunbaev, a political scientist:
- The issue of development of situation in Parliament is delicate, one might even say, intimate. During operation of the last convocation of the Parliament, we have seen a lot of coalitions. That is why any parties can agree among themselves. Everything depends on the concessions that they are ready to make. At the initial stage, coalition of the majority will be formed of those whose interests and views are close.
Most likely, the Social Democrats will unite with Kyrgyzstan. At least, the Social Democrats would have liked it. But the two parties are not enough. They will have to call someone else. Who will be the third depends on the party terms.
- Will the Social Democrats insist on retaining Temir Sariev on the post of Prime Minister?
- Most likely no. Temir Sariev is agreement of the previous parliament.