Polemic under pressure

Central Asia water-energy sector has never been quiet. In 2009 Tashkent made noises about the disjunction of the unified energetic ring and when the neighbors were not so scared of him, transferred triple strength on swaying of the Rogunsk and Kambarata power plants construction in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

They especially pushed against the pity, remembering the tragedy on Sayano-Shushensk power plant, then recollected about Aral Sea which has become a puddle and connected with it ecological problems. They frightened with disastrous consequences breaks of dams not erected yet. There were many arguments listed, but Tashkent especially insisted on assessment of all power plants going to be constructed.

Eventually Kyrgyzstan agreed with Tashkent. The Prime-Minister of Kyrgyzstan Daniyar Usenov, during his visit to Uzbekistan and negotiations on gas, assured neighbors that the assessment will be conducted, just in 2011. Dushanbe seemingly agreed too.

In particular, on 10 March, 2010 the World Bank Regional Director for Central Asia Motu Konishi stated that the WB will conduct technical and economic assessment of Rogunsk power plant in Tajikistan till 2012. Asian Development Bank is ready to render support on this issue. According to the Director General of ADB Central and Western Asia Department Juan Miranda, Rogunsk power plant, “we can say, is the center or core of the plan of actions prepared by Tajikistan’s government for achievement of energy security”. “We fully approve conducting investigations and examinations including environmental assessment in order to check the viability of the project”, he noted.

In general, Tashkent supposedly should be satisfied with such a turn of events. But already yesterday, 17 March, Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov tried to enlist support of Kazakhstan’s leader in this issue. And Nursultan Nazarbaev, at the press conference after the bilateral meeting, stated: “Together with Karimov we are to stand for conducting international assessment in the issues of construction of power plants in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan for their safety and water flow”.

This is necessary for our people, and here our Tajik and Kyrgyz friends and colleagues should understand us that we are raising these questions not because we want to contradict”, accentuated Kazakhstan’s President. “I negotiated with the heads of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Kurmanbek Bakiyev and Emomali Rakhmon, and they are ready for such assessment. I and Karimov request them not to start construction of power plants before receiving of results of assessment”.

Such agreement of opinions between two presidents disturbs a little. Especially, taking into account that Nursultan Nazarbaev and Islam Karimov have been trying to share the crown of the leader of the region since long and vainly. Astana diplomatic officials offered to ring the energy systems of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan by leaving Uzbekistan.

In this connection, the yesterday’s statement of Nursultan Nazarbaev “we together with Karimov, after receiving positive results of assessment, want to participate in the consortium on construction of power plants” looks quite attractive. But if Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will accept Kazakh investments into their energy sector, then would they deal with Uzbekistan is a big question.

Therefore the statement voiced in Tashkent can be considered differently: either as continuation of interregional fight for leadership, and as usual statements that are made during state visits but do not have any practical continuation in future. But all that was spoken by presidents can also serve a confirmation of how far the issue of power energy in Central Asia is politicized.