Parliamentary elections 2015 demonstrated a civic identity or impossibility to resist the food gift baskets?
Despite the fact that most of the participants of the election race traditionally used bribery and other attributes to attract the electorate, voters seem to have voted as they saw proper.
Not entirely justified hopes
The day before the President of Kyrgyzstan right after the voting has traditionally responded to journalists' questions. "I hope that the Social Democratic Party will not get 26 mandates," Atambayev said. However, paying it safe, the founder of the party, which was predicted a stunning victory with the help of the administrative resource, did not say how many the Social Democrats he would like to see in the Parliament of the 6th convocation.
"I know anyway that the majority of the population of Kyrgyzstan supports me," the president said, stressing that it is important for him to have a "firm footing" in Parliament.
The election ended not with the result, which the president hoped for. The Social Democratic Party became the leader with a minimal advantage. Republic-Ata-Jurt breathes the president's party down the neck. Yes, the authorities did not deny themselves the pleasure to deprive the fan of jumping over fences of the opportunity to get a deputy mandate, but exactly the supporters of Kamchybek Tashiev provided the main Republica member - Omurbek Babanov - with the second place, preliminary data says. CEC is still updating the results, but it is clear: Republic -Ata-Jurt will be the second. The gap between it and Kyrgyzstan party is very impressive.
The Parliament of the 6th convocation will be represented by six parties. In addition to the mentioned above, other three parties - Onuguu-Progress, Bir Bol and Ata Meken- have overcome 7 percent threshold and 0.7 percent regional barrier.
Blow under the belt
The leaders of Ata Meken and Ar-Namys are also the old-timers on the political scene, like Almazbek Atambayev. However, the results of this election for Omurbek Tekebayev and Felix Kulov were like a bolt from the blue. The electorate pished at them both. And if the Socialists have managed to get into the "last coach" of the Parliament, the previously proclaimed "shield of law" was rejected. Less than one percent of the people voted for Ar-Namys.
With such a "support" of the electorate, statements, discontent and accusations of Ar-Namys members of any electoral sins will look at least silly. And it will certainly not add credibility. After all, less than one percent of the votes - is more than eloquent ...
Distrust was also shown to such mastodons of domestic politics like Azimbek Beknazarov, Tursunbay Bakir uulu, Ismail Isakov, united in Azattyk party. The party became an outsider - in last place with 0.33 percent of votes.
Zamandash was also ignored by the electorate. Perhaps now the party finally realized whom they have to thank for such a resounding failure - less than three percent of voters. But a year ago, Zamandash had a real opportunity to be represented in the legislative branch. Experiments of "analysts" cost the organization a lot.
What portrait will the winners draw?
Who will represent the Parliament? Now this is the most intriguing question. Debriefing and sharing begins in the headquarters of parties-winners. We know that many organizations at the beginning made decisions how to get the coveted mandate. The party "wallets" and those, who earned the most votes at the polling stations, above all lot upon the seats in the Parliament.
It is clear that, like it was with the 5th convocation, we will see scandals and showdowns. Perhaps with the fights.
Republic - Ata Jurt will have hard times. Despite the fact that the court deprived Kamchybek Tashiev of access to mandate, artificially created "new" party realizes: convincing victory is a great merit of big lover to use his fists. And he, a former boxer, will insist on members of his personal staff in Parliament. Will Omurbek Babanov take the interests of his "friend" into account? Or he will forget about the agreements after taking the second place after SDPK?
Rough sharing is also possible in Onuguu-Progress and Ata Meken. We can only be sure in one candidate - the former PM Dzhoomart Otorbaev, who decorated the Socialist list. In case of redrawing the list, he will not be fighting for a mandate and is likely to give way to other party members. The favorite of the race - the Social Democratic Party will also have to make difficult decisions. Counting on 50-60 seats in the Parliament, the president's party gained not more than forty. Acting deputies as well as beginners, who were predicted entry into the Parliament, also were left overboard.
The people rejected the beginners from the ruling party. They had nothing to do but to blame this ... yesterday intelligent, wise, considerate people of corruption. We can, of course, agree that majority of voters still bite at bribery. But protégés of the "White House" look silly when express innocence and ignorance, wondering who has introduced this shameful tradition in our society.
We are waiting for changes
Can the Kyrgyzstanis be sure that Parliament will do what it should be engaged in- lawmaking but not in intrigues and lobbying of its shady but promising additional revenue business?
This is no less intriguing question. We will get the answer together with the publication of the personal composition of Parliament.
It is very important also who will form a parliamentary majority coalition. Experts already voice their opinions.
According to one of the leaders of Dalil Plus Expert Center Mars Sariev, a majority coalition can be formed of SDPK, Onuguu-Progress, Kyrgyzstan, Bir Bol and Republic - Ata Jurt. Ata Meken will remain in the opposition.
Another expert - Igor Shestakov - believes that coalition will include the Social Democrats, Kyrgyzstan and Onuguu-Progress.
"All the entered in parliament parties are willing to become the ruling coalition," expert Zulfiya Marat believes. According to her, it is now difficult to say exactly who will enter the coalition, but in any case the Social Democratic Party will determine the set of allies. Zulfiya Marat does not rule out that the Social Democratic Party and the Republic - Ata Jurt will create the majority alliance.
Kyrgyz citizens will hardly be surprised if the majority coalition will be created by opponents. Such is the nature of high politics, and not only in our country.
The result of the election surprised the majority of interested in local politics people. First of all, they were surprised by a low percentage of votes for the Social Democrats. We can hope that methods of "election", invented by associates of the fleet presidents, will be never used.
On the other hand, the election results of October 4, 2015 unlikely made Atambayev happy. The Social Democratic Party has not won 30 percent. These figures are not only the result of voter apathy, tired of political turmoil. It is rather the crown of biometric campaign. As usual, thanks to vague and fussy work of the officials, campaign on introduction of a fundamentally new electoral system almost collapsed. Its writers and directors recognized that the equipment failed and it refused to read their fingerprints at the first attempt. But these are trifles. It has done.
The head of state has promised us fair elections. We can say that he has fulfilled the promise. On the other hand, there is an alarm bell for Atambayev - there is no popular support of the Social Democratic Party, which it hoped for. Perhaps it is because of the odious persons whom the founder of the party not refused. They are known to all - so easy changing Akaev's Alga, Kyrgyzstan! to Bakiyev's Ak Zhol and after April 2010 - to the Social Democratic Party ...
According to CEC, the Kyrgyz Republic registered 2.761, 297 voters. On October 4, there voted 1.5 million Kyrgyz citizens, or about 60 percent. There has never been such a low turnout. More than one million citizens of the Kyrgyz Republic for some reason did not use their right to vote. Mess with biometric campaign also played a role.
About 60 percent - is not 99 percent at the time of Akaev, though some zealous rectors of universities brought their students to vote at separate polling stations. It did not help.
After such figures - present and the past that were drawn in the elections under Akayev and Bakiyev, we have an idea of the reality. Do you remember that? It was ridiculous when the Central Election Commission reported about ... 103.9 percent of voted in Naryn region.
... President of the country has something to grab his head. Parliament convocation №6 can become a headache for him, if not a chronic migraine.
Expert community drew different configurations of a future parliamentary coalition with the Social Democratic Party shuffling all but the Socialists (which is understandable). But we can not rule out the option that five parties will unite against the Social Democrats. In our establishment which has nothing to do with principles and honesty, it is quite possible.
Republic - Ata Jurt, Kyrgyzstan, Onuguu-Progress, Bir Bol plus the oligarchy, formed in the Social Democratic Party in 2010, are businessmen who have both feet on the floor. This very serious and hard-bags squad can become more than an impressive political force. The only question is - for what purpose? The answer is obvious. Less than 2 years left before the presidential election. This term candidates for the post №1 in the country will maximally use for their promotion.
Whether they are able or not, willing or unwilling, but our politicians have to learn to negotiate for the love of the country. Otherwise, such an oligarchic configuration in the new parliament can become an infernal force. And then the fifth convocation will seem to us an innocent 120-head sheep.